Artificial intelligence will come gradually

It is worth remembering that artificial intelligence will not arrive suddenly and dramatically as it sometimes does in science fiction, but rather will happen gradually over time. It is unlikely that a computer program will on a specific day pass a Turing test as if it’s a black and white distinction; instead, programs will gradually pass the Turing test with an increasingly higher success rate.

It has long been noted that the trouble with being a researcher in artificial intelligence is that whenever a task becomes well understood enough to automate on a computer (such as playing chess or recognizing human faces), the task no longer seems so intelligent. This will continue to be the case as artificial intelligence progresses. For example, driving a car or taking a good photograph will no longer be judged to require cleverness or sentience.

After all, humans are just one data point along a spectrum of intelligence and intelligences. Computers will surpass our various capabilities at different times and with varying price tags. When artificial intelligence does arrive, it is likely that we will fully realize it only in retrospect, in history (e)books.

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